How We Calculate Your Growth Ceiling (For Contract-Based Service Businesses)
How We Calculate Your Growth Ceiling
For contract-based service businesses with recurring routes
Scaling feels chaotic for a few simple reasons: work is ad-hoc, demand is lumpy, and the scoreboard is fuzzy. You’re adding customers while quietly losing others, and without a simple model you end up chasing the next job instead of a plan.
The good news: growth is governed by a small, honest set of inputs. Once you can see them, you can change them.
This page lays out a pocket model—the four inputs that drive your ceiling and the three levers that raise it: Acquisition, Retention, Expansion.
The Four Inputs (you’ll see these in your Coheara dashboard)
Current Customers (Active Sites) The number of customers currently on recurring service. In Coheara this maps to active sites (≥1 run in the last 90 days).
New Customers / Month Average net-new customers you add each month (e.g., new maintenance contracts or converted one-off clients).
Monthly Churn Rate (%) The percentage of your current customers that leave each month (cancellations, pauses past 90 days, or no longer serviced).
Average Revenue per Site (ARPS) Your average monthly revenue per recurring customer. You enter this; everything else is computed.
What We Calculate (and why it matters)
Ceiling Customers: The equilibrium point where new customers added = customers lost to churn. Above this, growth stalls unless inputs change.
Ceiling MRR: What monthly revenue you plateau at if nothing changes: Ceiling MRR = Ceiling Customers × ARPS
Time to Ceiling: How long (in months) it will take to approach that plateau from where you are now.
Churn, Callbacks, and CCP Compliance: Operational signals that usually move your ceiling more than ad spend.
The Math (plain English, then formulas)
Ceiling Customers
If you add A customers per month and churn c% of your current base, the steady state is: Ceiling_Customers = A / (c / 100)
Ceiling MRR
Ceiling_MRR = Ceiling_Customers × ARPS
Time to Ceiling (Months)
We model customer count as it moves toward equilibrium under your current adds and churn. The closed-form estimate is:
Time_to_Ceiling = ln( (Ceiling_Customers - (c/100) × Current_Customers) / (Ceiling_Customers - Current_Customers) ) ÷ ln(1 - (c/100))
Translation: If your churn is 10%, every month you “slide” ~10% toward the ceiling and “step forward” by your monthly adds. The formula tells you how many months until those forces balance.
Worked Example (contract-based)
Company: “RidgeLine Mechanical”
Inputs:
Current Customers: 500
New Customers / Month: 60
Monthly Churn Rate: 10%
ARPS: $150
Step 1 — MRR now
500 × $150 = $75,000 MRR
Step 2 — Customers lost to churn this month
500 × 10% = 50
Step 3 — Net adds
+60 adds –50 churn = +10 customers
Step 4 — What happens next
Month 1 ends at 510 customers
Next month churn is 10% of 510 = 51, adds are still 60 → +9
Then 519 → churn 51.9, still add 60 → +8.1
The gains get smaller each month until gains ≈ losses. That’s the Growth Ceiling.
Ceiling Customers
You plateau near 532 customers — adds (60/mo) ≈ losses (50/mo at 10.0%).
Ceiling MRR
$79,764.65
Time to Ceiling (estimate)
~15 months under these inputs
What this means
RidgeLine will asymptotically stall near 532customers / $80k MRR unless they change adds, churn, or ARPS.
Why this matters for contract-based operators
You can’t out-sell a high churn rate. Route density dies faster than ad budgets replenish it.
Callbacks and missed CCPs (evidence gates) often are churn—just delayed. Fixing procedures raises retention, which raises the ceiling.
Small ARPS lifts from add-ons (e.g., coil cleaning, filter programs, water quality kits, hood deep-cleans) compound faster than chasing new customers.
The Three Levers (and field-tested moves)
1) Acquisition — Get more customers per month
Referral triggers in your proof emails: “Forward this report to your facilities peer for a free filter set.”
Zone tagging to convert one-offs: Leave a QR on the asset you serviced with “Scan for next service.”
Channel discipline: Double down on the 1–2 sources that reliably book recurring contracts (not just one-offs).
Math effect: Increases A (adds). Ceiling_Customers = A / churn
2) Retention — Keep customers longer; lower churn
CCP photo gates on critical steps (no closeout without evidence).
Callback tagging that retrains your team on where in the SOPs issues recur.
90-day no-run alerts: rescue accounts before they become “inactive churn.”
Math effect: Lowers c (churn). Since churn is in the denominator, even a small drop (10% → 7%) lifts your ceiling a lot.
3) Expansion — Make each customer more valuable over time
Maintenance bundles: filters + coil clean + drain flush as a fixed monthly add-on.
Seasonal upgrades: pre-heat checks, freezer gasket programs, hood deep-clean cycles.
Site-tiering: bronze/silver/gold service levels tied to visit frequency and scope.
Math effect: Raises ARPS. Your Ceiling MRR climbs without touching adds/churn.
Quick Examples Of How The Math Works
“Our churn is 5%, adds are 40.” Ceiling = 40 ÷ 0.05 = 800 customers. If ARPS is $160 → Ceiling MRR = $128k.
“We can drop churn from 10% to 7% just by fixing callbacks.” Ceiling jumps from 60 ÷ 0.10 = 600 to 60 ÷ 0.07 ≈ 857 customers. Same ad spend, much higher growth ceiling.
“We lifted ARPS from $150 → $175 via bundles.” Ceiling MRR goes from 600 × $150 = $90k to 600 × $175 = $105k with zero change in new customers/churn.
Two Questions to Review Monthly
How far away is our next growth ceiling? (look at Time to Ceiling)
What will we change this month—adds, churn, or ARPS? (pick one lever and commit to improving it for the next couple months)
Your business can look unique on the surface—services, routes, gear, team—but the growth engine inside obeys the same math. Treat it like a math problem, then use your operator instincts to move the parts.
Recap: How Coheara Computes This (and what you control)
You enter ARPS.
Coheara measures adds and churn from your real activity (active vs. inactive/archived sites).
We calculate Ceiling Customers, Ceiling MRR, Time to Ceiling, and display a short AI Coach note.
Free plan: proof retained 30 days; Paid: 12 months. Deleted sites don’t count; archived/inactive affect churn trends.
Next Steps
See your live numbers → Make sites in Coheara for all your customers, have our AI draft a Procedure for you, you edit the rest, have your techs run the procedure for your customers, then open your dashboard and see your next growth ceiling.
Not on recurring yet? Start by tagging the asset (or zone) with a QR and converting one service into a monthly plan.